Quarterly market commentary
The first half of 2026 is officially in the books, and the second quarter could hardly look more different than the first. North American equity markets experienced a tremendous rebound in Q2 as a reprieve (or acceptance) in geopolitical tensions cooled both energy prices and inflation fears.
ReadThe first quarter of 2026 has come to a close, and you would not be alone in thinking we have packed a year’s worth of news into three months. Following three years of impressive equity returns, Q1 has brought more volatility and a more complex investment landscape, defined by a dramatic escalation in geopolitical tensions, an ongoing shift in market leadership, and both the excitement and fear of Artificial Intelligence.
ReadAs we enter 2026, we are pleased to share our latest update and look forward to the year ahead with you. 2025 will be remembered by the continued strength of equity markets, which reached new all-time highs in Q4 and capped a third year of impressive returns. The U.S. S&P 500 index gained 18.1% for the year, however weakness in the U.S. dollar lowered the return to 12.4% in Canadian Dollars.
ReadAfter much U.S. tariff-induced turmoil in the second quarter of 2025, investors were pleased, and likely surprised, that North American equity markets traded strongly and were generally stable in Q3. Trade worries, as they affected equity markets, faded and we witnessed continued strength in several key economic areas. In addition, both the Federal Reserve in the U.S. and the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 0.25% in September. This was fully expected in both cases, however in the U.S. interest rate levels have been become politicized by Trump, who continues to publicly call for lower rates - even though the Federal Reserve is an independent institution. The market has welcomed the cuts and expects further rate cuts by the end of the year, and into next year, in both countries.
ReadIn-depth investor pieces
Canada's business investment has lagged its peers for a decade, and productivity and wage growth have suffered for it. That is starting to change, with a new federal major projects office fast-tracking proposals in defence, energy, critical minerals and power. We walk through what is actually moving in each of those four areas, from NATO spending commitments and LNG buildouts to uranium mines and data centre power agreements. Along the way we highlight the portfolio holdings positioned to benefit if the shift proves durable.
ReadBehind the AI-led bull market, an unlikely group has quietly outperformed: Canadian banks. We examine why margins, credit, and capital discipline — not chips and models — have driven the sector's re-rating, and where we see value from here.
ReadWhy companies led by their founders have outperformed, and what we look for when we invest in them.
ReadCanadian equities have enjoyed a powerful run through 2024 and 2025, pushing the market to fresh record highs as we begin 2026. Beneath the surface, however, leadership has been unusually concentrated. The Materials sector, which is dominated by gold and silver producers, now represents more than 20% of the S&P/TSX Index - a dramatic shift driven largely by the extraordinary rise in gold prices.
ReadTopical viewpoints from our team
Why we initiated a position in United Natural Foods at $38, and why we still see material upside at $47.
ReadThe U.S.–Iran conflict has paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz and idled roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supply, driving prices to levels last seen during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While inflationary risks loom for U.S. and Canadian consumers, the disruption reinforces North America's position as a critical and stable energy provider.
ReadAs markets continue to notch new all-time highs in both the U.S. and Canada, the tariff limbo we endured in April feels like a distant memory—despite being only eight months behind us. As long-term investors, our job extends beyond identifying attractive opportunities; it includes reminding clients that the strong returns we strive for can only be captured by those who stay invested. The chart below offers a clear reminder of the remarkable turnaround we have witnessed in 2025 as solid fundamentals ultimately overpowered tariff-related concerns.
ReadOn September 9 it was announced that Anglo American PLC has agreed to merge with Teck Resources, which is held in our Canadian equity portfolio. This transaction is one of the largest mining deals in over a decade, with the combined company valued at over $50 billion USD.
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